The US market really got worried by the oil rally, and Bernanke's comments were exaggerated to good effect by the bears. The Australian market has been immediately marked lower in typical follow the leader fashion out of New York. As we approach what was our 'worst case' scenario near ASXSP200 4,785, think opportunity.
Markets are starting to move as expected, in a very bullish pattern, says Clifford Bennett of Herston Economics. In fact he believes the next two weeks could be among the more interesting periods of the year, as equity and commodity markets begin to accelerate higher. Oil and Gold continue to look good for further gains, and so do the Euro, sterling and Australian dollar.
Equity markets were marked lower last week on the back of continued geopolitical tension in the middle east. Yet by Friday the Dow Jones was showing signs of already having bottomed, and the US dollar was consolidating after failing to go on with the usual safe haven rally.
We were looking for a possible better low today, and we certainly have that, said Clifford Bennett of Herston Economics. The outlook is for a major low to be put in place today Bennett said. While many are bearish equities because of higher oil prices, the reality is that businesses will have to adapt, because oil is going a lot higher, to US$145 perhaps this year. Global growth will remain strong nonetheless and the sell down in the equity market simply represents a great buying opportunity.
The upheaval in Libya has only intensified the caution that equity markets were taking, according to Clifford Bennett at Herston Economics. He makes the point that these developments are in some ways unfamiliar to us in the west, in that they are for the long term benefit of the region. This is a sharp adjustment in the political landscape toward greater democracy and capitalism. As such oil flows are unlikely to be effected other than for a very short period of time.
The equity market has started the weak with a heavy tone. While a return to bullish sentiment can be expected at some point through the week, the increased public outcry against several governments in the Middle East over the weekend are bound to cause investors some pause. It is most likely that any down turn in prices over Monday Tuesday are an opportunity to buy, as the global economy will not be slowed by these geopolitical developments.
The equity market still represents remarkable value at current levels, and can in fact be described as cheap, say Clifford Bennett of Herston Economics. While company balance sheets are healthier, and profits higher than pre GFC, their stock prices are still only half what they were back then. With the world growing faster than others had forecast or expected, leaner corporations will reap the dividends.
