Commodities: No Opec Cut, Oil To Be Volatile

Sydney, Dec 1, 2008 (ABN Newswire) - Oil will dominate interest this week in commodity markets, even after OPEC members delayed a decision on whether to cut production again this year.

That's because the delay is only until December 17 and the next full meeting of OPEC.

OPEC said after the meeting at the weekend that it would take any "additional action" needed to stabilize the market at a summit in Oran, Algeria.

According to a statement from Chakib Khelil, the group's president, oil demand is expected to be "much lower" than estimated a month ago.

Crude oil prices have slumped 62% from July's record of $147.27 a barrel. 

Prices have continued to weaken after OPEC decided on October 24 to reduce production quotas by 1.5 million barrels starting November 1.

New York crude closed steady on Friday night ahead of the meeting at $US54.43. It rose in after hours trading to $US55.03. That small gain won't last today.

Prices rose 9% last week as markets in general recovered some of their strength after taking a battering the week before over rising fears of recession.

Those recession fears will return this week with poor reading expected from global manufacturing and service sectors in Australia, Europe, the US and possibly China and the UK.

Friday's US jobless figures will see unemployment soar for a third successive month by more than 200,000 people.

OPEC's gloomy outlook matches that from most analysts and groups like the IMF and OECD about the global economy next year.

OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said on the weekend that "The prices will not begin to rise before the second half of 2009".

El-Badri told the AFP newsagency that OPEC ministers had reached a "general consensus" about cutting output at the next production meeting later this month.

The Japanese industrial production figures from October tell a story about oil demand and the performance of the world's second biggest economy over the next year.

Both are going to be depressed. Japanese industrial production has fallen more than 12% from September to the end of December and companies say they will cut output again this month.

Japanese exports are slumping and until the US and European economies recover, nothing will change. The slowing rate of growth in China is adding to the pressure on output and on global oil demand.

Gold meanwhile finished its best month in nine years.

The terror attack in Mumbai added to the metal's attraction, especially from India which is one of the world's biggest markets for the metal.

Platinum also had the biggest weekly gain since May.

Comex February gold rose $US7.70 to $US819 an ounce in New York. Prices rose 14% in November, the best since September 1999.

In the week, the metal's prices rose 3.4%, but they are still down around 3% for the year so far..

January platinum futures jumped $US12.60 in New York on Friday on Nymex. The metal rose 6.9% last week and 6.1% in November; but it's still down 42% this year.

Gold reached a record $1,033.90 on March 17.

March silver futures fell 3.9USc to $US10.23 an ounce. The metal rose 5.1% in November. That was after a 7.6% rise last week, but futures prices are still down 31% this year.

Copper prices fell Friday, continuing the longest stretch of monthly declines since early 1999.

Stocks rose last week again, hitting four year highs, undermining the urge to buy that spread from share markets into some parts of the commodity sector.

It seems the realties of the global recession are more apparent in the copper and oil market than in some share market sectors.

And, it seems things won't improve next year. 

RBS Global markets forecast on Friday that copper supplies will exceed demand next year by 250,000 tonnes and that figure will rise to half a million tonnes in 2010, which is bad news for BHP Billiton, Rio, Oz Minerals and a host of other groups still bullish on copper.

Stockpiles overseen by the London Metal Exchange rose 1% to 291,650 tonnes on Friday, the highest since February, 2004.

Copper prices fell 9.8% last month and marked the fifth straight monthly fall, the most since March 1999. Copper is down 57% since June 30.

The metal fell 36% in October, the biggest since Comex started trading copper futures in 1988.

March Comex copper futures fell 4.2USc, or 2.5%, to $US1.6495 a pound October.

LME three month copper dropped 2.1% in London on Friday to $US3,625 a tonne ($1.64 a pound).

In London aluminium had its worst losing streak in nine years.

It's bad news for Rio, struggling with the costly Alcan purchase, Alcoa, which has cut production by 15%, and BHP.

The culprit could be China (Chinalco, the biggest shareholder in Rio, is the biggest producer in the country ), which some traders claim could flood the market with metal simply to generate cash (and to help Chinese consumers obtain metal at lower prices).

There are reports that the Chinese government might cut or even eliminate taxes on primary aluminium exports.

According to research from BNP Paribas, aluminum supply will outpace demand by 1.4 million tonnes in 2009, double this year's surplus.

Three month aluminum fell 1.7%, to $US1,769 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange on Friday. That took the drop for November to 14%. The metal has fallen for five consecutive months, the longest run since the period ending early 1999.

Alcoa has slashed production capacity by 615,000 tonnes, or 15% of its total capacity, this year as metal prices have fallen sharply.

Demand has shrivelled and inventories held in LME warehouses have ballooned due to a deepening global economic crisis to more than 179,000 tonnes on Friday, up 44,235 tonnes.

Copper has tumbled 46% since the start of the year and aluminum is down 27%.


 

AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at http://www.aireview.com.au