Rates: Strap Yourself In

Sydney, Nov 4, 2008 (ABN Newswire) - Desperation is always a good thing to be on, as we saw with the win by Viewed in yesterday's Melbourne Cup.

He drove to the front, led by three lengths inside the final two hundred metres, then hung on in a desperately tight finish to win by a nose.

We will be lucky to avoid staying out of recession by that small a margin, after the central bank went for the whip for a second month in a row to keep the economy headed towards the good going, and out of the recessionary more near the rails.
Perhaps that's why the Reserve Bank chopped its cash rate by another larger than expected figure yesterday, 0.75%, half an hour before the big race was run and won.

It seems fears that the economy is slowing much faster than thought forced the Bank into making its second larger than expected rate cut in row.

The 0.75% took its cuts since its September meeting to 2%, the quickest and fastest rate cuts in its history. At 5.25%, the cash rate is the lowest since December 2003.

The last time the RBA cut rates as quickly was in February-April of 2001 when it chopped the cash rate by 1.50%.

But nothing like a sequence of 0.25% in September, 1% last month and 0.75% yesterday.

It's a sign that the central bank has become very concerned that the economy is sliding quickly into recession next year, as the likes of Goldman Sachs JBWere, JPMorgan and a growing number of other forecasters are saying.

PM Rudd warned on Monday of a "difficult, tough and ugly period ahead". Judging by the RBA's cut yesterday, on top of that October 'persuader' the going has gotten decidedly heavy and ugly.

Could it be that the economy will end up on the verge of a recession this quarter?

But don't tell the banks that: otherwise why would the Commonwealth Bank only pass on 0.58%, instead of 0.75%?

The RBA is now saying that spending and activity in the economy will be "weaker than earlier expected'. 

Instead of worrying that the improving terms of trade will push too much money into the economy, falling international demand and commodity prices will now have a "dampening influence" on the domestic economy.

Monday's weaker than expected house price index figures, showing a the biggest fall for decades, a sharp fall in retail sales, manufacturing and job ads in October, all point to the level of activity in the economy slowing at a rate much faster than previously thought.

The slowing in retail sale seems to be still with us, but not as deep as at the start of last month with Harvey Norman reporting yesterday that its same store sales fell 0.6% in the four week to Sunday, November 2. 

That's an improvement on the falls seen over the previous couple of weeks.

The fact that the bank cut rates 0.75% to 5.25%, is a sign that it now seems growth slumping much more quickly than thought.

And another rate cut is on the cards next month as a result and the bank could cut the cash rate to under 5%, especially if the September quarter's growth figures are bad, when released at the end of this month.

Unlike last month when it in part justified the surprise 1% cut on forcing as much of the rate cut through to borrowers, they were not mentioned in the statement accompanying the decision by Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens.

The bank merely pointed to "recent reductions in borrowing rates" working with the impact of the weaker dollar and the Federal Government's stimulation package to "assist growth in the period ahead."

Perhaps the RBA should have done so, to remind the banks' of their greater responsibilities.It fell on deaf ears at the CBA.

The central bank had forecast in the August Monetary Policy Statement that non-farm GDP growth would dip to 1.5% annual this quarter before edging up to be running at around 2% in the second half of 2009. (The RBA updates Monetary Policy next Monday with the latest quarterly statement)

The bank seems to be warning that the slowdown in economic growth is almost upon us: previously it has been looking for growth to dip in the first half of next year and continue at low levels into the second half.

"Recent reductions in borrowing rates, the depreciation of the exchange rate and the fiscal stimulus announced in October will work to assist growth in the period ahead, but deteriorating international conditions and falling commodity prices will have a dampening influence.

"On balance, it appears likely that spending and activity will be weaker than earlier expected.

"In Australia, the overall path of economic activity appears until recently to have been close to what the Board had expected, with a needed moderation in demand occurring after a period of earlier strength

"International economic data have continued to point to significant weakness in the major industrial economies, and there have been further signs that China and other parts of the developing world are slowing as well.

"These conditions have contributed to further falls in world commodity prices.

"Consumer price inflation in Australia remained high in the September quarter. As expected, CPI inflation in year ended terms picked up to 5 per cent, while underlying measures were just over 4½ per cent.

"Nonetheless, capacity pressures are now easing and, given the outlook for more moderate growth in demand and activity, it is reasonable to expect that inflation in Australia will soon start to fall.

"Global disinflationary forces will assist in this regard, though the depreciation of the exchange rate means that the decline of inflation to the target could take longer than would otherwise be the case.

"Weighing up these international and domestic developments, the Board judged that a further significant reduction in the cash rate was warranted.

"The Board will continue to monitor developments and make adjustments as needed to promote sustainable growth consistent with achieving the 2–3 per cent inflation target over time."

The Commonwealth Bank has become the first major bank to cut its variable home loan interest rates, but it didn't pass on the full 0.75%. It cut its variable home loan rate by 0.58%, leaving 0.17% on the table.

The bank's complete home loan variable rate will fall to 7.74%, from 8.32%, while its economiser base variable rate will fall to 7.23%, from 7.81%.

It's competitors didn't move last night, unlike the two previous cuts. 

The CBA was left to cop all the criticism, while its rivals assessed their next move. Could one of them go the 0.75% to embarrass the country's biggest home lender?


 

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